The scientific evidence proving ‘anti-vaxxers’ right

David Gilbertson
3 min readJul 5, 2021

The world is currently in the process of rolling out a vaccine that is killing people. Every day, millions of people are getting a jab in the arm that could be their last.

This is not disputed.

There is, of course, another option: not getting the vaccine.

In fact, there are only two options: getting the vaccine or not getting it. It makes perfect sense — assuming you don’t want to die — to pick the one with a lower chance of killing you.

So what are those chances? Well it depends very much on your age and location, so I’ll use some general numbers to paint a picture, but I encourage you to work out the values as they apply to your age in your country.

Let’s look at option 1, getting the vaccine. Your chances of dying are roughly one in a million. That’s not nothing. People buy lottery tickets with worse odds than that.

What about option 2, not getting the vaccine? Again it differs wildly, but globally, every month, about 1 in 40,000 people are dying from SARS-CoV-2. And that’s every month, you’ll have to roll the dice again next month, and the next, and the next. (Deciding to “wait a while” and “see how it pans out” before getting the vaccine puts you in the “no vaccine” group; you’re exposed to the same risk regardless of your future plans.)

So the odds of death are one in a million for vaccine takers, 25 in a million (every month) for non-takers.

I will demonstrate this visually with cat. The cat represents death. Here is your risk of death if you get the vaccine:

And below is your risk of death if you don’t get the vaccine.

See how many more cats there are?

Being concerned about getting injected with something that can kill you is a valid concern, but when the only other option (not getting the jab) is far more likely to kill you, then a straight-thinking life-loving person must conclude that getting the vaccine is the least-worst option.

What about the title of the article?

David Gilbertson

I like machine learning stuff.